My op-ed in today's FT www.ft.com/content/e…

There has been much talk about a pending recession ... again! Keep this in mind. --- Economist Rudi Dornbusch is known to have said that economic expansions do not die of old age; they are murdered. This has been true for the last 50 years: 2020 = COVID 2008 = Financial…

1/9 I've been asked about my stance on yields. Do I still think the 10-year yield is going to 5.00%—5.50%? Yes But I also took a neutral stance a few weeks ago. 75% of the move is over. 🧵

1/4 By picture thought. --- April's unemployment rate of 3.9% was the 27th consecutive month of a sub-4% unemployment rate. The longest such streak since 1970 (54+ years). If May is also sub-4%, that will be the longest such streak in 71 years (1953).

1/6 A great piece by @EconTodd and James Carter about how the US Treasury messed up the last 15 years ago. (h/t @judyshel) --- Rather than issuing 50- or 100-year bonds when interest rates were at rock-bottom, the US Treasury dismissed this option and simply continued to borrow…